A great **problem solver** does two things: (1) tracks truth under uncertainty and (2) finds structure in complexity. Everything else is support skill: language, values, self-control, and coordination.
The Two-Part Engine:
1) Probability + Causality
So you don’t fool yourself. (Calibration, base rates, evidence quality, confounding, causal graphs / counterfactuals.)
2) Algorithms + Systems
So you can make progress on messy reality. (Decomposition, abstraction, constraints, feedback loops, second-order effects, leverage points.)