Matt Lane · Notes← All notes
2026-02-07 · Judgment & knowledge

My Modified OODA Loop: The PC²UDA Loop 1.

My Modified OODA Loop: **The PC²UDA Loop**

1. Problem: Notice an inadequacy (empirical or conceptual): contradiction, surprise, goal failure, explanatory gap, unexplained regularity, new constraint/aim, or a mismatch between prediction and outcome.

2. Conjecture: Propose 2–3 explanatory candidates (not just predictions).

3. Criticism: Attack candidates hard:

- Non-empirical criticism: inconsistency, vagueness, ad hoc patches, low explanatory power, doesn’t actually explain the problem.

- Empirical criticism (where useful): design discriminating observations/experiments that would rule out at least one live conjecture.

4. Update: Revise/eliminate conjectures; tentatively adopt the best-surviving explanation(s) (or keep multiple live candidates if unresolved) and revise what you’re paying attention to next (your “orientation”).

5. Decide: Choose the next discriminating move: the cheapest/fastest action that maximizes learning or advantage per unit cost/time/risk given constraints.

6. Act Execute: produce new reality.

→ Loop: Act generates new outcomes and constraints, which feed new Problems (including new criticisms).

Of course, the goal is to always shorten this learning loop length to minimum time per unit error-correction / advantage (i.e., maximize discrimination rate, not just speed).

Discussion

This is the one strategic through line that emerges as the signal from the noise.