1. Sense — notice a signal in the world.
Look for anomalies, workarounds/misfits, unmet needs, changing behavior, or new capabilities that make previously impossible things possible. Treat need-signals and capability-signals differently: a new capability is an opportunity hypothesis, not evidence of demand.
1.1. Immerse — experience the problem directly.
Do the work yourself where possible. Observe, shadow, trace, handle the artifacts, and encounter the real constraints. Move from hearing about the problem to knowing its world.
2. Internalize — build your own model of what is really happening.
Understand the underlying forces well enough to explain why things work as they do, distinguish causes from symptoms, and anticipate what happens next. Map the incentives that sustain the current reality. Question inherited assumptions rather than taking the existing system as given.
2.1. Form a point of view — make a judgment about what ought to exist.
Use your understanding of what is, together with your values, taste, imagination, and sense of possibility, to choose a better future worth pursuing. This is a judgment, not a conclusion forced by the evidence.
3. Test — put that conviction back into the world.
State what you expect to happen and what evidence would change your mind. Then create the smallest artifact, prototype, experience, or intervention that lets reality respond. Prefer real behavior over stated agreement.
4. Calibrate — learn from the gap between prediction and reality.
Compare what you expected with what actually happened. Record the prediction, result, and lesson so the learning survives the moment and improves future judgment.
Sense → Immerse → Internalize → Form a Point of View → Test → Calibrate
World → Self → World
Outside-in provides the signal.
Immersion turns signal into understanding.
Judgment turns understanding into conviction.
Testing turns conviction back into evidence.
Calibration improves the next judgment.
The goal is earned conviction: a strong view of what ought to exist, grounded in reality but not constrained by its current form.
Ultimately, it's about opportunity authorship, i.e., deciding which futures deserve to exist.